On 20 March 2023 the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the Synthesis of the Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6) of Working Groups I, II and III of the IPCC which had been published on 9 Aug 2021, 28 Feb 2022, and 4 April 2022. These working groups reported on the physical science basis for climate change; the impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and the mitigation of climate change, respectively. Replete with technical terms and in-house jargon, the reports with their various press releases, summaries for policymakers, headline statements, etc., are worth reading. The graphics help to illustrate the tough reality that we are all – without exception – in a severe crisis. The Secretary General of the United Nations, António Guterres delivered a seven-minute address at the publishing of the Synthesis Report.[1]
If the heady UN-speak does not captivate us, then reality on the ground cannot fail to capture our attention: On 20 March 2023, the international news was also reporting on the deaths of over 499 people caused by Cyclone Freddy in landlocked Malawi. No reports were available for the number of human casualties in La Réunion, Mauritius, Madagascar and Madagascar, which were in the path of the same cyclone.
At the World Meteorological Organization the jury is still out on whether Freddy was the longest-lived tropical storm on record. Over 37 days Freddy had tracked from Western Australia and Indonesia, across the Southern Indian Ocean, hitting Mauritius and La Réunion, making landfall in Madagascar and then Mozambique and Malawi. It then reversed direction, moving west back over the Mozambique Channel, building up in strength, and made another U-turn to hit the East Coast of Africa again. It has not been determined whether the cyclone was so fierce as a result of climate change. But that point might be considered academic by people who lost loved ones in mudslides, floods, collapsed buildings, and the ensuing chaos.
Co-incidentally I am writing this piece as my students are sitting for the examination of their elective course on Christian Ethics of the Environment. From India, Mexico and five African countries, they have submitted semester papers on climate change, air pollution, soil erosion, wetland invasion, human rights, deforestation and other topics. Today (22 March) is also World Water Day when the UN brings to our attention the importance of fresh water, and “raises awareness of 2 billion people living without access to safe water.” Unsafe water with chemical or biological pollutants is unsuitable for drinking, agriculture or washing. But unsafe water is also in the extraordinary weather events we see all too frequently: devastating floods in Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, California, Germany, Australia, the Philippines, Brazil, Kenya, South Africa, and the list goes on. This is our sad new reality. When will we become so disgraced by human suffering that we make a determined concerted effort to change our consumptive lifestyles that are the root cause of all this suffering?
It concerns me that Russia’s aggressive war in Ukraine, and the cutting off of Russian gas to Europe have caused wealthy European countries to find alternative sources of fossil fuels, backpedalling on their commitments at Stockholm, Paris and Glasgow, etc. Rather than seizing the day to begin the long, painful weaning off from fossil fuels, they are encouraging developing countries to open up new fields of oil and gas exploitation. This can only exacerbate the future emission of greenhouse gases.
Amid the bad news, I was heartened by the brave address of António Guterres at the publication of the AR6 Synthesis Report. He urges developed and developing countries to redouble their efforts to reverse the present climate-change trajectory. The world’s top diplomat comes across as a true believer in humanity’s resolve to change. Inspired, perhaps, by Pope Francis’ call to all people to undergo an “ecological conversion,”[2] Guterres encourages and cajoles, with a good dose of reality. I am concerned that Guterres’s and Francis’ urgent pleas are falling on deaf ears, and that the political will is woefully lacking for people and governments around the world to make a difference. How realistic are these two credible world leaders being? What will it take before we tackle the greatest existential challenge of our times?
Apart from exhorting every country and business to reach its target of net-zero greenhouse gas emission by the deadlines they have set for themselves, Guterres reminds countries of the importance of solidarity between the poorer countries, which suffer the effects of global climate change, and those countries which are responsible for most of the historical emissions of greenhouse gases. The Climate Solidarity Pact which he has proposed to the G20 group of nations is designed to assist the poorer countries to build resilience to the devastating effects of climate change, and to move away from carbon-intense economies. Along the lines of “you cannot have your cake and eat it,” I contend that if any developing nation wants to benefit from this financial solidarity, then in the spirit of the same international solidarity it should commit to not exploiting its fossil fuel reserves.
I have transcribed Guterres’s March 20 address here for your edification.
Dear friends, humanity is on thin ice and that ice is melting fast…
Human activity is responsible for virtually all global heating in the last 200 years…
Temperatures are at their highest in two million years…
It is a timebomb ticking…
The Paris ambition of a 1.5°C rise in global temperature is still achievable – but will take a quantum leap in commitment – of every timeframe,…in every sector… Our world needs climate action on all fronts – everything, everywhere, all at once.
I have proposed to the G20 a Climate Solidarity Pact in which all emitters make extra efforts to cut emissions…. Give financial assistance to support emerging economies in the common effort to keep 1.5° alive. Supercharge efforts for the Climate Solidarity Pact through an all-hands-on-deck acceleration agenda. It starts with parties immediately hitting the fast-forward button of their net-zero deadlines to grade to global net-zero levels by 2050 in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of the national circumstances.
Specifically, leaders of developed countries must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2040, the limit they should all aim to respect. This can be done. Some have already set a target as early as 2035. Leaders in emerging economies must immediately commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2050 … again, a limit they should all aim to respect.
This is a moment for all G20 members to come together in a joint effort pooling their resources and scientific capacities as well as their proven and affordable technologies so that the public and private sectors can make carbon neutrality a reality by 2050. Every country must be part of the solution. Demanding others do first only assures that humanity comes last. The acceleration agenda calls for a number of other actions, specifically no new coal and the phasing out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 in all other countries; ending all public and private funding of coal; ensuring net-zero electricity generation by 2035 for all developed countries and 2040 for the rest of the world; ceasing all licensing and funding of new oil and gas consistent with the finding of the International Energy Agency; stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves; shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to a just energy transition; establishing a global phase-down of existing oil and gas production compatible with the 2050 global net-zero target.
I urge all governments to prepare energy transition plans consistent with these actions and ready for investors. I’m also calling on CEOs of all oil and gas companies to be part of the solution. They should present credible, compreshensive and detailed transition plans in line with the recommendations of my High-level Expert Group on net-zero pledges. And these plans must actually detail actual emission cuts for 2025 and 2030 and efforts to change business models to phase out fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy. This acceleration has already started in some sectors, but investors now need crystal-clear signals, and all governments need the assurance that business leaders will help them deliver on extra efforts. But governments must also create an enabling policy and regulatory environment. Shipping, aviation, steel, cement, aluminum, agriculture, every sector must be aligned with net zero by 2050 with clear plans including interim targets to get there.
At the same time we need to seize the opportunity with credible innovations that contribute to reaching our global targets. We must also speed up efforts to deliver climate justice to those on the frontlines of many crises (and who pay they cost???) We can do this by safeguarding the most vulnerable communities and scaling up finance and capacities for adaptation and loss and damage; promoting reforms to ensure multilateral development banks provide more grants and concessional loans and fully mobilize private finance; delivering on the financial commitments made in Copenhagen, Paris and Glasgow; replenishing the Green Climate Fund this year; and developing a roadmap to double adaptation finance before 2025; protecting everyone with early warning systems against natural disasters in four years; implementing the new loss and damage fund this year. The longer we wait on any of these crucial issues, the harder it will become. In less than nine months, leaders will gather at COP28 for the first global stock-take of the Paris Agreement. We will also launch the process to prepare the next cycle of national climate plans on National Determined Contributions during 2025. These new climate plans must reflect the acceleration needed now over this decade and the next. By the end of COP28, I count on all G20 leaders to have committed to new economy-wide Nationally Determined Contributions encompassing all greenhouse gases and indicating their absolute emission cut targets for 2035 and 2040.
The transition must cover the entire economy. Partial pledges won’t cut it. I look forward to welcoming the first movers of the acceleration agenda and the climate ambitions summit in September in New York.
Once again I thank the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for showing the fact-based, science-grounded way out of the climate mess. We have never been better equipped to solve the climate challenge but we must move into warp-speed climate action now. We don’t have a moment to lose. Thank you.
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[1] For the YouTube version of the address go to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A47M9wXs6Yg
[2] Francis. Laudato Si’: Encyclical Letter on Care for Our Common Home (Vatican: Libreria Editrice Vaticana, 2015) 216-221.