The Philippines occupies a distinctive location as an independent archipelago situated at the meeting point of the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. The majority of vessels transporting oil, liquefied natural gas, and military assets traverse the South China Sea en route to various Asian nations, with the Luzon [Philippines] Strait serving as a crucial passage toward East Asia, especially Japan and South Korea.
For this reason, the Philippines is vital for U.S. interests. Furthermore, it is close to Taiwan, making it especially significant during any potential crisis involving Taiwan. While the United States has long upheld the One China Policy, Washington under former President Biden pledged to defend Taiwan as part of its strategy to counter China’s ascent as a global superpower.[1] Should China gain control over Taiwan, it would also command Asia’s key maritime routes. The Luzon Strait—situated between Taiwan and the northern Philippines—offers deep waters that enable nuclear submarines to pass with minimal risk of detection. Analysts further note that U.S. interest in Taiwan is tied to safeguarding its reliance on Taiwanese semiconductor companies.
Within the South China Sea lies the West Philippine Sea, which is the term Manila uses to refer to that part of the South China Sea within its 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). China asserts ownership over nearly the whole West Philippine Sea through its vague U-shaped nine-dash line, which also overlaps with the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam.
The South China Sea is renowned for its rich natural resources. The Philippine Department of Energy estimates that the area may hold up to 12.2 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 6.2 billion barrels of oil, much of it concentrated in the contested Reed Bank within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. These resources could supply the nation’s energy needs for more than a century at current usage rates, with some estimates extending beyond two centuries.[2] In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague affirmed that Reed Bank lies within the Philippines’ EEZ.
Furthermore, according to the Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), the West Philippine Sea provides around 12% of the country’s total marine catch and sustains the livelihoods of roughly 385,000 Filipino fisherfolk. China, however, has repeatedly harassed not only Philippine naval vessels but also local fisherfolk.
The U.S. meanwhile, has downplayed the energy reserves in the West Philippine Sea, judging them insufficient to reduce China’s reliance on oil and gas. Its current priority is curbing China’s growth and expansion, rather than pursuing short-term economic gains from the area.
But the U.S. struggles with the vast distances and time demands of deploying forces across the Pacific, as compared to China. Its counter strategy is the First Island Chain, composed of Japan, Korea, and the Philippines, which it employs to block Chinese military dominance in the region. During the Cold War, the U.S. operated Clark Air Base and Subic Naval Base in the Philippines, two of its largest and most strategically significant military facilities in the Asia-Pacific. In the early 1990s, the Philippines chose to shut them down, viewing the bases as remnants of US colonial rule and symbols of American backing for the Marcos dictatorship
In 1999, however, U.S. soldiers came back via the Visiting Forces Agreement, and in 2014, the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). Under former President Duterte, the administration openly leaned toward China, showing disdain for the Philippines’ alliance with the U.S. and expressing caution over the Mutual Defense Treaty, wary that it might draw Manila into a conflict with Beijing.
In contrast, the administration of President Marcos Jr. has worked to strengthen defense relations, relying on the Mutual Defense Treaty as a safeguard against China’s assertive actions in the West Philippine Sea. Since February 2023, the Philippines has added four new EDCA sites to the five already available to the U.S.—three oriented toward Taiwan, others facing the South China Sea, and two toward the Pacific. Mao Ning, the spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, remarked that with the new EDCA sites, the Philippines will be dragged in the conflict between China and the US![3]
President Trump and Vice President Vance consider China as “the biggest threat” to the U.S. In their view, the U.S. and China are at a pivotal moment where only one can emerge victorious. Ideally, the Philippines should aim to be non-aligned between the two world powers through coalition-building with other South China Sea claimants. The ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations), as a non-aligned group, can also try to negotiate with China, however, their military power will not be able to match that of China.
The principles of Catholic Social Teaching which are more broadly principles of justice and peace, can also guide relations between nations. The principle of respect for human rights extends to the right of a nation to pursue development, while the principle of universal destination of the goods of the earth includes the right of a nation to be the steward of the resources within its exclusive economic zones.
To promote the global common good, eradicate poverty, and defend basic human rights, Pope Francis, in Fratelli tutti, also underscored the need for “stronger and more efficiently organized international institutions, with functionaries who are appointed fairly by agreement among national governments, and empowered to impose sanctions” (no. 172; 2020). For instance, while the international tribunal in The Hague has ruled that the Reed Bank lies within the Philippines’ EEZ, it lacks the power to enforce penalties for China’s violations of this ruling.
Fratelli tutti warns against relying on brute force instead of the rule of law. It calls for strengthening legal and institutional frameworks that enable the peaceful settlement of disputes, ensuring these mechanisms have greater authority and binding power (no. 174). Finally, Pope Paul VI in Populorum Progressio (no. 64; 1967) and Fratelli tutti (no. 174) promote solidarity among nations, especially through multilateral agreements, something that the Philippines must pursue with its neighbors, to advocate an independent, non-aligned, anti-colonial foreign policy.
—
[1] The Role of Energy in Disputes over the South China Sea | The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR)
[2] Non-alignment to benefit from West Philippine Sea – IBON Foundation
[3] China: New EDCA sites may draw Philippines into Taiwan conflict | GMA News Online